Researchers from the University of Oxford have unveiled a groundbreaking tool that identifies 11 key factors contributing to the development of dementia. This predictive tool has demonstrated significant superiority over existing models and could potentially prevent about 40% of dementia cases. With global dementia cases projected to triple to 153 million by 2050, the urgency to mitigate its impact is clear.
The new dementia risk score draws from 11 modifiable risk factors, including age, education, history of diabetes, depression, stroke, parental dementia history, deprivation, high blood pressure, high cholesterol, living alone, and gender. By analyzing data from over 223,000 individuals aged 50 to 73 participating in long-term UK studies, researchers developed the UK Biobank Dementia Risk Score (UKBDRS) tool.
When assessed in conjunction with the APOE gene, a known dementia risk factor, the UKBDRS-APOE tool demonstrated the highest predictive accuracy. However, the standalone UKBDRS tool also performed exceptionally well. The potential implications of this tool are far-reaching. By identifying individuals at risk, it could facilitate further assessments, including cognitive evaluations, brain scans, and blood tests. Moreover, it empowers people with preventive measures, such as smoking cessation, blood pressure reduction, weight loss, and alcohol intake moderation, all of which could collectively prevent up to 40% of dementia cases.
While emphasizing that the tool does not provide definitive outcomes, lead author Dr. Raihaan Patel stressed the variability of risk factors and the opportunity for intervention. Associate professor Sana Suri echoed this sentiment, underscoring that while age and genetic factors are significant, conditions like diabetes, depression, and high blood pressure also play pivotal roles. The research’s findings are published in the BMJ Mental Health journal.
